As noted in my previous posts New Zealand Census 2013 and Census 2013 Data Releases Continue the 2013 Census base population and demographic information is available for each local authority.
We have previously covered the importance of population and demography changes in our ‘Day with Professor Natalie Jackson‘ and ‘Ingenium Conference 2013‘ video series.
Updating the demand and growth sections of the AMPs is critical to accurate forward infrastructure investment projections. The 2013 Census data forms the base for this analysis.
I have included some brief bullet points for your consideration:
- Population and Demographic updates and analysis should be completed at a ‘whole of Council’ or regional level. The key issue for AMP updating is getting this analysis delivered in time for asset and activity-specific analysis
- If you have City, District or Regional strategic planning documents that include population and demographic projections – have these changed as a result of the 2013 Census data (i.e. do they need updating as well), or are they broadly on track
- If you have the population and/or demographic analysis models built into specific asset capacity or demand models make sure you review and revise these as necessary
- Do the 2013 Census results challenge any of the assumptions implicit in your Councils strategic planning, or more specifically – in your asset management plan. Make sure to check this.
- With the demographic changes projected – what is the impact on growth, and the utilisation of assets. Does your analysis consider this?
The time and work required for good future demand analysis, and consideration of options and scenarios based on projections, should be built into your AMP updating project plan.
Finally – there is a reasonable amount of work required in updating AMP demand forecasting this year, so make allowance for the time and resources needed to do this.
Please share your thoughts